Bangkok (AFP) - Thailand’s caretaker premier Anutin Charnvirakul was preparing for coalition talks Monday after his conservative Bhumjaithai Party surged to a stunning election victory on a wave of nationalism.

The pro-military and pro-monarchy party had its best electoral performance ever in polls that took place after two rounds of deadly border clashes with Cambodia last year.

Voters appeared to turn their backs on the reformist People’s Party, as well as Pheu Thai, the political organisation of jailed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The two parties’ vote shares plummeted compared to the last poll in 2023, according to preliminary results from the election commission.

“Do you know why Anutin managed to catch up with other parties? Because he stood up to Cambodia,” retiree and former Pheu Thai supporter, Pipat Saeteaw, 72, told AFP on Monday.

Despite the strong victory, Bhumjaithai Party was still expected to fall short of an outright majority in the lower house, meaning Anutin would need to strike a coalition deal with another party to govern.

Anutin, the scion of a construction dynasty, will also need to tackle anaemic economic growth and manage fallout over multibillion-dollar cyberscam networks operating from the region.

“Thailand will move like it moved in the past three months. We will see nationalism, a strong position on Cambodia and economic policies. Nothing changes,” said Virot Ali, politics lecturer at Thammasat University.

Bhumjaithai was on course to win almost 200 seats, according to preliminary results released by the election commission after 90 percent of votes had been tallied.

That would give it the largest share, but less than half of the seats in the 500-member lower house.

The People’s Party was expected to win around 115 seats, and Pheu Thai was set to come in third, according to the preliminary results.

Pheu Thai is seen as a potential coalition partner for Anutin, as they were allies until Bhumjaithai pulled out over a Cambodia border dispute scandal.

Anutin, who took office in September, declined to be drawn Monday on potential coalition talks.

“Everything is still under consideration and in progress. Whatever the case, I have to bring this matter to the party meeting first,” he told reporters. “There are still procedures to follow.”

Pheu Thai had its worst showing since Thaksin founded his political dynasty, after his daughter Paetongtarn was felled as prime minister over her handling of the Cambodia border dispute.

Thaksin is serving a one-year prison sentence for corruption in office, but many observers expect him to be released earlier than scheduled alongside a political agreement.

- Phone call scandal -

Paul Chambers, an associate senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told AFP that Bhumjaithai achieved victory by “emphasizing its commitment to nationalism and the king”.

The conservatives also benefitted from the “continuing unpopularity of Pheu Thai” following a leaked phone call in which Paetongtarn referred to Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen as “uncle” and described a Thai military commander as her “opponent”.

The leak sparked public and political backlash, and she was later dismissed from office by the constitutional court on an ethics complaint.

Political analyst Napon Jatusripitak expected Bhumjaithai to “move quickly” to form a government in which its interests would prevail.

The conflict with Cambodia, which killed scores of people and displaced around a million on both sides, was top of mind for voters.

“I want the border areas to be peaceful first. Then the government can move on to solve other issues,” said Prae Sangmanee, a 46-year-old seamstress near a Bangkok shopping mall.

“If the borders are secure, the economy should be able to move forward.”

Soon after becoming premier following Paetongtarn’s removal, Anutin authorised the armed forces to take whatever action they saw fit on the border.

Thailand’s military took control of several disputed areas in the latest fighting in December, and a fragile ceasefire remains in place.

The Southeast Asian nation’s political history is replete with military coups, bloody street protests and judicial intervention.

Its constitution, drafted under military rule following the last coup in 2014, gives significant power to institutions appointed by the senate, which is not directly elected.

Around 60 percent of voters were projected to have backed constitutional reform in principle in a referendum on Sunday, albeit with no specific measures on the table.

But Bhumjaithai will now be in a position to guide the reform process, and its conservative instincts make radical change less likely.

Thailand’s stock exchange on Monday responded positively to the election result, jumping more than three percent, with the baht also strengthening, after the clear victory by Bhumjaithai signaled a greater likelihood of policy stability.